Key Business Risks Monitor

The Key business risks monitor provides a real-time window into the specific threats keeping global executives up at night. Based on the methodology outlined in the Journal of Economic Perspectives article "Text as Data in Economic Analysis", these metrics track the evolution of five critical business risks—Inflation, Supply Chain, Trade, Russia, and COVID-19.

Key feature: cardinal comparability

Most risk indices are "relative" (normalized only against their own history), making it impossible to compare different types of threats.

Our Risk Scores are different. Because we use a unified measurement framework—calculating the percentage of total corporate conversation devoted to each risk—our metrics are cardinally comparable.

This means you can mathematically compare the magnitude of different risks at any single point in time. You can answer questions such as:

• "Is the corporate fear of inflation currently higher than the fear of supply chain disruptions?"
• "Did the Russia-Ukraine shock generate more anxiety than the US-China trade war?"

This allows for a true "Risk ranking", giving strategists a clear view of the relative hierarchy of concerns in the global boardroom.

Why This Matters

• Apples-to-apples comparison: Stop guessing which narrative is dominant. Our data proves exactly which risk is consuming more management bandwidth.
• Regime change detection: Corporate risk perception often shifts before the hard data does. For example, the Supply Chain Risk Score spiked months before official data reflected the full impact of COVID-19 supply chain disruptions.
• Thematic basket trading: Use these scores to build long/short baskets. When the Trade War Risk Score rises relative to others, shorting heavily exposed importers while going long domestic producers generates uncorrelated alpha.