The Corporate Geopolitical Risk Index
The Corporate Geopolitcal Risk Index
At a glance:
Not specified
- Coverage
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Public firms, 80+ countries, 2002-present.
- Granularity
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Earnings-call level (firm-panel export: one row per call).
- Source
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LSEG earnings-call transcripts (English).
- Update schedule
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Last data refresh Mar 11, 2026.
Update frequency:
Quarterly
- Export shape
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Time-series aggregates; firm-panel call-level rows.
- Access
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Free preview; exports depend on plan.
Overview
The Global Corporate Geopolitical Risk Index is a firm-level measure of geopolitical risk as perceived by C-level executives, derived from executive and analyst speech during corporate earnings calls.
It offers a novel, high-frequency perspective on how political tensions affect real-world business decisions. Building on Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), published in the American Economic Review, the firm level index captures material risk as perceived and discussed by corporate leaders across 80 countries.
Why it matters
For analysts at the IMF, central banks, and global financial institutions, this index serves as a "bottom-up" complement to traditional macroeconomic indicators.
- Filter out noise: Corporate executives are legally obligated to disclose material risks. A spike in this index reflects not just "bad news," but news that is actively altering capital allocation, supply chains, and forward guidance.
- Early warning system: By aggregating firm-level anxiety, this measure often anticipates drops in cross-border investment and capital flight before they appear in official GDP or trade statistics.
- Granular analysis: The dataset allows users to isolate risk perceptions by country, sector, and even firm and thereby enables precise stress-testing of portfolios against specific regional flashpoints.
Explore the data
This measure currently has one series. Use the chart below to inspect its time trend, and open the series page for full query and methodology notes.
How to access?
Preview: Browse all series and view charts without an account. Downloads require sign-in .
Free plan
- series: time-series + panel included.
- Other series: 1 unlocks panel + time-series.
Standard plan
- Time-series: included for all series.
- Panel: series included; other series require 1 panel export credit .
Research / Enterprise
- Time-series: included for all series.
- Panel: included for all series.
Methodology and data
Methodology
While the original Caldara & Iacoviello GPR Index relies on newspaper archives to track general geopolitical sentiment, our metric applies their validated dictionary of risk-related terms to the transcripts of corporate earnings call transcripts.
We search for the query below and define a metric --Risk - at the firm level as the number of sentences that contain at least one keyword from the query and also a synonym for risk or uncertainty. Synonyms for risk and uncertainty are single-word synonyms taken from the Oxford Thesaurus.
Query:
war, military, terror*, geopolitical, conflict, ”Middle East”, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Libya, Ukrain*, Russia*, ”North Korea”, Venezuela, coup, expropriation, confiscation, nationalism, security, protest*, country, countries, political, retaliation, unrest, geograph*, troop*, sanction, sanctions, embargo, wars, warfare, army, navy, weapon*, combat, missile*, immigration, diplomacy
Data
- 400k+ earnings-call transcripts, ~14,000 public firms based 80+ countries (~60% based in the United States), 2002–today
- Language: English
- Source: LSEG
- Coverage varies by market depth and transcript availability
References
Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M., "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, 112(4):1194-1225 (2022)
NL Analytics. (2026). The Corporate Geopolitical Risk Index [Data set]. NL Analytics. https://apps.nlanalytics.tech/curated-measures/global-corporate-geopolitical-risk-index/