Curated Measures

The Corporate Geopolitical Risk Index

The Corporate Geopolitcal Risk Index

Updated Mar 11, 2026 1 series 1,380 viewers 11 downloaders

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Overview

The Global Corporate Geopolitical Risk Index is a firm-level measure of geopolitical risk as perceived by C-level executives, derived from executive and analyst speech during corporate earnings calls.

It offers a novel, high-frequency perspective on how political tensions affect real-world business decisions. Building on Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), published in the American Economic Review, the firm level index captures material risk as perceived and discussed by corporate leaders across 80 countries.

Why it matters

For analysts at the IMF, central banks, and global financial institutions, this index serves as a "bottom-up" complement to traditional macroeconomic indicators.

  1. Filter out noise: Corporate executives are legally obligated to disclose material risks. A spike in this index reflects not just "bad news," but news that is actively altering capital allocation, supply chains, and forward guidance.
  2. Early warning system: By aggregating firm-level anxiety, this measure often anticipates drops in cross-border investment and capital flight before they appear in official GDP or trade statistics.
  3. Granular analysis: The dataset allows users to isolate risk perceptions by country, sector, and even firm and thereby enables precise stress-testing of portfolios against specific regional flashpoints.

Explore the data

Series

1 total Data through Apr 30, 2026

Open the series page for its full query, filters, and methodology notes.

Methodology and data

Methodology

While the original Caldara & Iacoviello GPR Index relies on newspaper archives to track general geopolitical sentiment, our metric applies their validated dictionary of risk-related terms to the transcripts of corporate earnings call transcripts.

We search for the query below and define a metric --Risk - at the firm level as the number of sentences that contain at least one keyword from the query and also a synonym for risk or uncertainty. Synonyms for risk and uncertainty are single-word synonyms taken from the Oxford Thesaurus.

Query:

war, military, terror*, geopolitical, conflict, ”Middle East”, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, Libya, Ukrain*, Russia*, ”North Korea”, Venezuela, coup, expropriation, confiscation, nationalism, security, protest*, country, countries, political, retaliation, unrest, geograph*, troop*, sanction, sanctions, embargo, wars, warfare, army, navy, weapon*, combat, missile*, immigration, diplomacy

Data

  • 400k+ earnings-call transcripts, ~14,000 public firms based 80+ countries (~60% based in the United States), 2002–today
  • Language: English
  • Source: LSEG
  • Coverage varies by market depth and transcript availability

References

Caldara, D. & Iacoviello, M., "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, 112(4):1194-1225 (2022)

NL Analytics. (2026). The Corporate Geopolitical Risk Index [Data set]. NL Analytics. https://apps.nlanalytics.tech/curated-measures/global-corporate-geopolitical-risk-index/

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